Financial Articles

When you reach a certain level of understanding about how the FOREX market works, you become conscious of the huge significance support and resistance levels have.

Although the internet is populated with a large collection of strategies and rules on this subject, I always found it difficult to understand what lies beneath and how to reliably pinpoint the exact inflexion level on a chart.

This article addresses the subject in my unique and well-known style. I will share with you my findings as well as the optimum approach to them, trying to extract the essential and propose a simple, yet effective way to show a constant profit.

The S/R levels are the product of the battle between the sellers and buyers, on their perpetual attempt to turn a profit from their market expectations.

This is always dictated by the big players and smaller hands only come to add momentum to any change in direction.

This observation becomes more significant for larger time frames on the chart, given the colossal size of this market (more than 1.5 trillion USD a day).

That is why all technical analysts advise you to wait for the change in direction to occur, and avoid initiating positions in the anticipation of a support or resistance level. This is precisely because no one knows if the big guys are still willing to defend that level.

Of course, they will pack their analysis in vibrant colours and fashionable expressions, but the naked truth is the above-mentioned one.

The advent of so-called “digital options” brought major players at the table. These are the “casino-style” bets, using terms like “one touch” barrier, “double no touch” barrier and similar others. Simply put, you bet that if the rate behaves in a certain fashion, over a specified time frame, you will be paid a certain amount of money, in line with “odds” similar with horse race betting. For instance, you can bet that EUR/USD, currently trading at 1.2300, will not go above 1.2400 for the next seven trading days. If this scenario plays out well for you, the broker pays you in line with the odds of the bet.

This “digital options”, together with their “classic options” relatives, are a major supplier of S/R levels in the FOREX market, as players select very specific levels for their bets.

As it is the case with all humans, we tend to simplify things, this approach resulting in “round numbers” for our bets. It is unlikely that we will go for a 1.2328 level and more likely that 1.2350 or 1.2300 will be our choice.

This mechanism initiates the structure of rather predictable S/R levels on any FOREX chart and the most important ones are the clear, full, round numbers as 1.2000, 1.2100 or 1.2200, if we are to take EUR/USD pair as an example.

While I accept that there is more to it than this presentation, a good grasp of these two concepts, the big players and round numbers, will greatly improve any trading activity.

In the process, do not forget that news and economic calendar can play important roles in the formation of S/R levels and they tend to be fiercely defended by the important trading operators.

A word about Trend Lines is appropriate here.

Trend lines are a result of the formation of S/R levels and not a way to form them, even if the quasi totality of analysts is presenting them as a method of prediction. They are a great help for the big boys, as they easily show where the vast majority of traders will place their orders. I tend to give them a secondary importance, compared with the round numbers and news related inflexions.

Over trading is one of the biggest causes why traders never make it in the financial markets. With a click of a button, a trader can place a trade anytime he wants. It takes tremendous discipline to hold yourself back from over trading. There are many reasons why one may choose to over trade.

1. Traders without a plan

Traders without a plan are my favorite type of traders because they will always lose. Without a plan, how would one know when to take a trade and when not to? Having a trading plan is a necessity. I can not trade if I do not have a plan for the day. I feel lost without one.

2. Revenge trading

Many new traders become tilted after a loss or a string of losses. This causes them to revenge trade just to break even. This often leads to reckless trading forcing a trade when opportunity is low.

3. Chasing the markets

Alot of new traders feel more pain when they have missed a move than an actual loss. This is why new traders love to chase the markets. If price has moved away from your projected entry point, let it go. There are plenty of more opportunities. Chasing is one of the worst habits a trader can have. Not only does it offer you low rewards, it also gives you a horrible entry and alters your stop loss placement. Always think about the risk before the profits.

When you have a plan to follow, it is easy to filter out bad trades from good one. This keeps you discipline and selective in your trades. I personally do not like trading more than 5 round trips a day. Patience is a virtue. There are always good high probability trading opportunities everyday. Just sit tight and don’t jump the gun.

One way to control a loss is by reducing your size. The problem with gamblers is that they will often double up their stake so they can get even quicker. This usually leads to a greater loss and devastation. Having the strength to grind your way back from a loss is important in trading. Whenever I am having a losing streak, I will trade small and gradually recover. This also gives me the confidence I need after a string of losses.

As you ponder how to balance your forex portfolio, it is important to map out sure-fire strategies beforehand.

With your plan, you optimize your reward with respect to the expected risk, and tweak probabilities to your favor. Forex strategies must be disciplined and limit risk; simultaneously, it positions you at the most favorable advantage in the market.

A beginner’s strategy is the fundamental Moving Away Average, which is draws predictions from technical study over 12 periods, with each period 15 minutes in length. Trading decisions based on the MAA technique considers historical data to arrive at relatively safe predictions.

We use a simple algorithm for MAA. When currency price crosses above the twelfth period, simply move away it is a signal to stop and reverse. In this way a long position will be liquidated and a short position will be established, both using market orders. This system keeps trades constantly active in the market, with either a short position or a long position after the first signal. Risk is minimized.

Intermediate level strategy calls for analysis of support and resistance levels. The market likes to trade above support levels and trade below resistance levels. If either a support or a resistance level is broken, then the market follows through in the direction given. These breakpoints can be determined by analysis of the chart and assessment of where the chart has encountered unbroken support or resistance in times past. Identify these critical points and you can ascertain periods when you plan to open or close a position.

An advanced tactic that many consider exotic is the balloon strategy. The Balloon is an option that balloons, or increases in size when triggers are breached. Take the case of an investor who predicts that the dollar will gain strength against the Euro in the near future and is currently trading at one hundred, the investor will see one hundred ten as having strong resistance, but he also believes it will be broken.

Now, rather than buying straight US dollars at one hundred for the next six months the investor will purchase at “at the money” balloon call with a One Hundred Ten trigger and multiple of two. The investor then acquires a One Hundred Ten call in USD110mm. However if the dollar and Euro ever trade at or above one hundred ten, the 110 call will double to USD 20mm.

A day trader at heart? The Double Bottom is definitely for you. Significant to the short term trader, the double bottoms indicate a possible major change in currency sentiment and indicates a shifting trend. The pattern is used on all times frames, and many compelling intraday and long term bull markets are identified from this setup.

Analysts recognize that double bottoms quickly reflect strong support levels. When prices fail to break support in the down trending markets on more than one occasion we see powerful changes of trend. These reversal signals are revealing. The most common portal where a trader will open on a double bottom trade is upon a maneuver through the high of the two troughs. This high embodies secondary resistance, and when penetrated confirms a price reversal. From this vantage point, stops are placed around the lows of the patterns because a move below lows negates the pattern premise. Easy isn’t it?

To round of your arsenal of forex implements, arm yourself with the ichimoku chart. These charts consist of following indicators, which identify support and resistance levels and create trading beacons in a manner that is akin to moving averages. A contrast however between both is that the Ichimoku chart lines swing forward in time, creating vast swathes of support and resistance zones while decreasing the risk of trading false breakouts. They are arrived at with data on trend existence, direction, support and resistance.

The four primary lines include:
• Turning Line = (Highest High + Lowest Low) / 2, for the past nine days
• Standard Line = (Highest High + Lowest Low) / 2, for the past twenty-six days
• Leading Span 1 = (Standard Line + Turning Line) / 2, plotted twenty-six days ahead of today
• Leading Span 2 = (Highest High + Lowest Low) / 2, for the past fifty days, plotted twenty-six days ahead of today’s date.
Commit these tactics to memory and bring home Your Gold..